Publications
Somaliland Probabilistic Gu (March-April-May) 2026 Seasonal Rainfall Forecast
The Gu (March–April–May) 2026 seasonal outlook for Somaliland projects predominantly above-normal rainfall, with a 45% probability of wetter-than-average conditions across most regions and near-normal rainfall expected elsewhere, while temperatures are likely to be above average in many areas. The rains are forecast to begin earlier in western regions, from early to mid-April, and progressively spread eastward, with later onset in eastern and northeastern areas and generally fair to good distribution in western and central regions but poorer distribution in the east. Given the critical role of the Gu season, which contributes nearly 60% of annual rainfall, the outlook highlights important implications for agriculture, water resources, livestock health, and humanitarian preparedness, recommending strengthened early warning communication, climate-smart agricultural practices, improved livestock disease surveillance, enhanced water management, stronger flood and health preparedness, and environmental protection measures, while emphasizing continuous weekly and monthly monitoring to support timely, evidence-based decision-making by government and partners.
