Publications
Somaliland Probabilistic Gu (March-April-May) 2026 Seasonal Rainfall Forecast
Feb. 24, 2026
The Gu (March–April–May) 2026 seasonal outlook for Somaliland projects predominantly above-normal rainfall, with a 45% probability of wetter-than-average conditions across most regions and near-normal rainfall expected elsewhere, while temperatures are likely to be above average in many areas. The rains are forecast to begin earlier in western regions, from early to mid-April, and progressively spread eastward, with later onset in eastern and northeastern areas and generally fair to good distribution in western and central regions but poorer distribution in the east. Given the critical role of the Gu season, which contributes nearly 60% of annual rainfall, the outlook highlights important implications for agriculture, water resources, livestock health, and humanitarian preparedness, recommending strengthened early warning communication, climate-smart agricultural practices, improved livestock disease surveillance, enhanced water management, stronger flood and health preparedness, and environmental protection measures, while emphasizing continuous weekly and monthly monitoring to support timely, evidence-based decision-making by government and partners.
Deyr (October | November | December) 2025 Seasonal Performance over Somaliland
Feb. 16, 2026
The Deyr (October–December) 2025 season across Somaliland was characterized by below-normal, poorly distributed, and short-lived rainfall, resulting in limited environmental and livelihood recovery and continued drought stress. Although localized heavy rainfall occurred in areas such as Sheikh and Balligubadle, most regions received minimal precipitation, with rains starting early in October but ceasing by early November, followed by prolonged dry spells exceeding 60 consecutive days. The uneven rainfall produced only temporary improvements in vegetation and soil moisture, with negligible impact on groundwater recharge, rangeland regeneration, and rain-fed agriculture. Drought conditions persisted, particularly along the northern coastal belt, while moderate drought expanded inland across parts of Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag. Overall, the season demonstrated weak hydrological recovery and strong drought carryover, highlighting the importance of monitoring rainfall distribution, dry-spell duration, and drought indicators to support effective drought preparedness, water resource management, and anticipatory planning in Somaliland.
SOMALILAND GROUND WATER STATUS UPDATE DECEMBER, 2025
Jan. 20, 2026
This report presents a comprehensive assessment of groundwater conditions across Somaliland based on weekly monitoring of 170 strategic boreholes and telemetric observations from 10 automated stations. Groundwater remains the country’s most reliable year-round water source, though it is highly vulnerable to climate variability, drought, and increasing abstraction. Analysis shows widespread aquifer decline during the 2024–2025 dry period, particularly in Arabsiyo, Badhan, and Dhahar, followed by partial recovery linked to the Deyr 2024 and Gu 2025 rainfall seasons, highlighting strong dependence on seasonal recharge. Conductivity trends generally mirrored water-level fluctuations, with higher mineral concentration during depletion and improvement during recharge, while some areas such as Oodweyne exhibited persistent salinity driven by geological factors. As of December 2025, 95% of monitored boreholes were operational, with failures mainly caused by pump, power, and pipe issues. The findings emphasize the critical role of continuous groundwater monitoring for early detection of depletion, infrastructure maintenance, and evidence-based water resource planning and humanitarian response across Somaliland.